Austin Housing Market Week in Review: March 2026 Outlook and What Comes Next

Austin Housing Market Week in Review:

March 2026 Outlook and What Comes Next

The Austin housing market is closing out this week with more inventory, more price cuts, and more buyers quietly stepping off the sidelines.

This week's austin real estate data gives us a clear picture of where things stand as we move deeper into the spring selling season. There are currently 14,103 active residential listings across the greater Austin area, a 7.2% increase compared to the same point in 2025. While that number might sound like a concern at first glance, it is worth noting that active listings peaked at 18,146 back in June of 2025, meaning supply has come down significantly from that ceiling. The market is not shrinking in terms of options for buyers, but it is no longer running toward excess the way it was less than a year ago.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for March 13, 2026.

Of those 14,103 active listings, 47.1% have had at least one price reduction. That is nearly half of everything on the market. For buyers, that is a meaningful signal. Sellers across the area are adjusting their expectations, and for anyone who has been watching from the sidelines waiting for prices to come down, that window is still open. The median sold price in March 2026 stands at $450,000, which is up $15,000 from February but still down 3.4% compared to March of last year. It also represents an 18.18% decline from the peak median price of $550,000 reached in May of 2022, a drop of roughly $100,000.

One of the most important numbers in this week's austin market update is the pending listings count. There are currently 4,474 homes under contract, which is 6.9% higher than the same period in 2025. That is not a small difference. It means more buyers are making offers and locking in deals compared to a year ago. New construction is accounting for 1,763 of those pending sales while resale accounts for 2,711, showing that demand is present across both segments of the market. This increase in pending activity is one of the most encouraging signals in this entire data set.

The Activity Index for resale homes currently sits at 20.84%, which places the market in what analysts define as the Softening phase. This phase is characterized by slower sales and rising inventory, but it is two full phases above the Contraction or Danger Zone and three phases above a full market freeze. New construction is performing considerably better, with an Activity Index of 31.65%, which falls into the Expansion range and reflects strong demand for newly built homes relative to the available supply. The overall Activity Index of 24.1% is essentially flat with where it was in March of 2025, which tells us the market has not deteriorated further from a year ago.

Months of Inventory, which measures how long it would take to sell all current listings at the current pace of sales, stands at 4.99 for the overall market. That is up 8.1% from March 2025, when it sat at 4.62. Looking back further, the two-year change is even more dramatic, with inventory levels up 36.7% compared to March 2024. The resale segment carries more weight here, and different cities are telling very different stories. Cedar Park sits at just 2.90 months of inventory, which would indicate seller-favorable conditions, while places like Dale and Smithville are sitting at 35 months and beyond, reflecting extreme oversupply in some outlying areas.

The absorption rate, which measures the percentage of active listings that result in a sale in a given period, currently sits at 17.51%. The historical average for this metric is 31.49%, so the market is absorbing homes at roughly half the pace it normally would over a typical market cycle. That gap reflects the broader theme of this austin housing forecast: supply has outpaced demand since 2022, and while the imbalance is narrowing, buyers still hold meaningful negotiating leverage across much of the region.

The Market Flow Score, which combines multiple turnover and efficiency metrics into a single index on a scale of zero to ten, currently reads 4.12. The historical average for this score is 6.57. A score below the historical average reflects a market where inventory is moving more slowly than usual, where buyers have time to deliberate, and where sellers need to price competitively to attract interest. This is not a crisis reading, but it is a clear indication that the market has not yet returned to its long-run equilibrium.

For real estate agents working in this environment, the data points to a strategy centered on accurate pricing from day one. With nearly half of all active listings already having taken at least one price reduction, the cost of overpricing upfront is becoming increasingly visible. Buyers are informed and patient. New construction continues to perform well, and agents who can help clients evaluate new builds alongside resale options will have a competitive advantage in the conversations that matter most.

Looking at price trends across the bottom and top of the market, both the 25th percentile and 75th percentile price segments are seeing slight declines year over year. The bottom quarter of the market has seen prices fall about 1.86% and cost per square foot drop 7.14% compared to March 2025. The top quarter has seen prices dip 1.76% with cost per square foot down 5.60%. These are modest declines, not dramatic corrections, and they reflect a market that is adjusting gradually rather than collapsing.

The long-term picture for austin real estate remains grounded in the fundamentals. Using the 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.785% annually, and assuming the current median of $450,000 represents the bottom of this correction cycle, analysts project it would take approximately 53 months, or until July 2030, for the median price to return to its peak value near $550,000. That projection is not a guarantee, but it provides useful context for buyers and investors thinking about what the next several years may look like.

For buyers, the austin real estate forecast for the remainder of 2026 is one of continued opportunity. There is more inventory than average, sellers are negotiating, and the rising pending count suggests that others are already beginning to act. Waiting for a perfect bottom is always a gamble. For sellers, the message is clear: price matters more than ever, and the homes that are moving are the ones priced in line with where the market actually is, not where it was in 2022.

Visit Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing at teamprice.com/austin-daily-real-estate-briefing for the complete archive of daily market data.

If this PDF does not display, click here to open in a new tab .

FAQ SECTION

Is now a good time to buy a home in Austin?

Based on the data from March 13, 2026, there is a strong case to be made that now is one of the more buyer-friendly windows the Austin market has seen in several years. There are 14,103 active listings available, which is 7.2% more than this time last year, giving buyers a wider selection to choose from than they had in recent years. Nearly half of all active listings, specifically 47.1%, have already had at least one price reduction, which means sellers across the area are open to negotiation. The median sold price of $450,000 is down 18.18% from the May 2022 peak of $550,000, representing a $100,000 reduction that can translate into meaningful savings for buyers entering the market now. While no one can time the market perfectly, the combination of elevated inventory, motivated sellers, and rising pending activity suggests that buyers who act with good data and strong representation are well positioned.

Are home prices dropping in Austin Texas?

Yes, home prices in Austin have declined from their 2022 peak, and the March 2026 data confirms that the market has not yet returned to those highs. The median sold price currently stands at $450,000, which is down 3.4% compared to March 2025 and down 18.18% from the all-time peak of $550,000 reached in May of 2022. At the same time, the median did tick up $15,000 from February to March of this year, which is a positive month-over-month signal worth watching. Across the broader market, both the bottom 25th percentile and top 25th percentile of homes have seen modest year-over-year price declines of approximately 1.86% and 1.76% respectively. The overall price trend reflects a market that corrected significantly from an overheated peak and is now stabilizing rather than continuing to freefall.

What is the Austin housing market forecast for 2026?

The austin housing forecast for 2026 points to a market that is in a gradual stabilization process, with cautious optimism driven by improving demand signals. Pending listings are up 6.9% compared to 2025, which suggests that buyer activity is increasing even as overall supply remains elevated at 14,103 active listings. The Activity Index for resale homes at 20.84% places the market in the Softening phase, but new construction is performing meaningfully better at 31.65%, landing in the Expansion zone. The Market Flow Score of 4.12 remains well below the historical average of 6.57, indicating the market has not yet regained full momentum, but improving pending counts and rising March sold totals are encouraging early-year data points. Using historical appreciation rates, analysts project the Austin median price could recover toward its prior peak by mid-2030, assuming the market bottom has been reached.

How does Austin inventory compare to historical levels?

Current Austin inventory at 14,103 active listings is higher than what the market saw during the low-supply years of 2020 through 2022, but it is meaningfully below the peak of 18,146 reached in June 2025. Months of Inventory currently stands at 4.99, which is up 8.1% from March 2025 and up a much larger 36.7% from March 2024, reflecting the significant buildup in supply that occurred over the past two years. Historically, Months of Inventory below 3 reflects a strong seller's market, while readings above 6 suggest buyer control territory. The current reading of 4.99 places the overall market in a relatively neutral-to-buyer-leaning zone, though individual cities vary dramatically, with Cedar Park as low as 2.90 months and some outlying communities well above 10 months. Cumulative new listings from January through March 2026 total 9,900, which is 24.8% below the same period last year, meaning fewer new homes are hitting the market compared to 2025, which could help inventory levels gradually tighten through the spring.

Which Austin cities have the most price drops right now?

Looking at the active listings data from March 13, 2026, several Austin-area cities stand out for having especially high rates of price reductions among their current listings. Liberty Hill leads all tracked cities with 62.5% of its active listings having had at least one price drop. Hutto follows closely at 60.6%, and Lockhart sits at 58.8%. Other cities showing elevated price reduction rates include San Marcos at 54.7%, Burnet at 53.9%, Elgin at 52.9%, and Georgetown at 53.4%. These figures reflect areas where seller pricing expectations have not yet aligned with what buyers are willing to pay, creating an environment where active negotiation is common and buyers can often find meaningful room to work with on price. Even in more competitive submarkets like Austin proper, 41.2% of active listings have seen at least one price reduction, suggesting that flexibility from sellers exists across the broader region.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

If you’d like a custom breakdown of the data, want help interpreting today’s market trends, or just have a question about buying or selling in Austin, let us know. Fill out the form below and a member of our team will get back to you promptly.